A little backstory if I may before I get to my post. In 2014, in partnership with Oracle Marketing Cloud, I led a fascinating two-part research study into the minds and habits of holiday shoppers. Surveys conducted in October 2014, and late 2014 looked to compare and contrast the differences between what holiday shoppers say they will do vs. what they actually do.
The findings were quite intriguing, to say the least.
For example, the overall amount of money a consumer was expected to spend on average via holiday shopping was $791. In reality however, that number was $876, an increase of 11% over the expected amount.
We are conducting the same two-part research again this year and while the post-holiday numbers are not ready, of course, we do know the expected or anticipated amount from our October 2015 study of over 1000 Holiday Shoppers, and that amount ($829) represents a small increase over last year’s expected $791.
As you can see from the chart above, when you compare the top set of numbers with the bottom set of numbers, men are actually planning to spend slightly less this year than they planned to spend last year. Of course, as you can see from last year’s actual spend (the middle set of numbers, above) men don’t necessarily stick to their budgets!
But take a look the amount women are expected to spend ($734) over last year’s projected spend ($646). That’s an increase of 14%. And there’s good reason to believe that women actually will spend more than they did last year: if you look at what they said would spend in 2014 ($646) vs. what they actually did spend ($651), the numbers are very close.
As to why women plan on spending more this year, the reason may be simple.
In a blog post last week my colleague Melissa DeCesare, referenced research conducted by The Research Moms. As DeCesare writes “The research shows that moms are very positive toward holiday shopping, with two thirds (66%) saying they love it. Another 24% said they shop because they have to and just 8% said it is the worst part of the season. A small group, (2%) said they don’t give gifts.”
So, for 2015, we have a number of factors in play. We have women telling us that they love holiday shopping, and telling us they plan to spend not only more than they planned to spend last year, but more than they actually spent last year. And we have signs of economic confidence, such as the Fed’s recent hike in short-term interest rates. These, and other factors, may contribute to a very happy holiday season, indeed, for retailers.
As I mentioned we are conducting the same research again this year and we will release the findings of that in early 2016. In the meantime, however, be sure to download Turning 2014's Holiday Trends into 2015 Revenue and get a full view into all the findings from last year's research.
Author's Bio: Tom Webster is Vice President of Strategy for Edison Research. He is a specialist in consumer behavior, and has spent nearly 20 years telling stories with numbers and trying to gain insights from data.
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